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Ive noticed it too and have come to a conclusion that its probably because of all the players who whined and cried about having excess sigils so the chest have be nerfed to heal that wound. Now this season whoever has excess sigils wont get an exchange rate
I have been keeping records for 9 months and I actually believe part of the issue is player driven. For example there is a 14% chance of bronze 1% chance of silver per monument. 9 months ago 7 monuments would give an almost guaranteed chest each run. And you would often see 2 or 3 in a run.
Alot of bases I see are 1 or 2 islands long so that means a 15%-30% chest drop rate - in other words I now need to hit 3 bases for on average 1 chest.